By Dean Karakitsos | Founder & CEO, Asymmetrix Published: February 18, 2026

Part of our ongoing series on the prediction markets revolution. Previously: Why Prediction Markets Aren't Gambling and The Super Bowl Just Proved Prediction Markets Are Mainstream.

Something happened today that changes everything about prediction markets.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig filed an amicus brief backing Crypto.com against Nevada's gaming regulators — the first time under his leadership that the federal government has formally taken sides in the states-versus-platforms fight. His message to state attorneys general: "We will see you in court."

That's not a regulatory update. That's a declaration. And it means the prediction market landscape you're looking at right now — the platforms, the volumes, the power dynamics — is about to shift dramatically.

So let's map it. All of it. Because whether you're actively trading, considering entering the space, or building in it, understanding who's who and where the momentum is going is the difference between leading the market and chasing it.

The Industry By the Numbers

Before we get into individual platforms, here's the scale we're talking about:

2025 total industry volume: Over $44 billion in notional trading across all platforms. To put that in context, the entire industry did roughly $4 billion in 2024. That's 10x growth in a single year.

Weekly volume (as of February 2026): Approximately $6 billion per week across all tracked exchanges, with single-day records approaching $1.2 billion (hit during Super Bowl LX).

Monthly records: January 2026 surpassed $12 billion — the highest monthly figure ever recorded.

Active platforms: At least 10 major platforms now offer event contracts, up from essentially two (Kalshi and Polymarket) a year ago.

Regulatory status: Federally regulated as derivatives under the CFTC. As of today, the federal government is actively fighting states that attempt to classify prediction markets as gambling.

This is no longer an emerging market. It's emerged.

The Big Two: Kalshi and Polymarket

The prediction market industry is effectively a duopoly right now. Kalshi and Polymarket combine for roughly 85-90% of total volume. But they're fighting very different wars with very different weapons.

Kalshi — The Regulated Incumbent

2025 volume: $43.1 billion (approximately $27.3 billion in notional trading volume by some measures) Current market share: ~60%+ Regulation: CFTC-designated contract market (DCM) — the gold standard for US regulatory compliance Funding: Raised $1 billion+ (valued at $5 billion+) Available in: 42+ US states Payment: USD via bank transfer, debit card, PayPal, Venmo, crypto Fee structure: Varies by contract type; no fee on winning shares under certain conditions

What Kalshi does well: Regulatory clarity is Kalshi's moat. As the first CFTC-approved prediction market exchange, it operates like a traditional financial exchange — which means bank deposits, tax documentation (1099s), customer support, and a legal framework that institutional money trusts. Its Robinhood integration has been a massive retail funnel, turning millions of stock traders into prediction market participants overnight.

Kalshi also dominates sports. NFL and NBA markets are where the volume lives — sports accounted for roughly 78-90% of Kalshi's trading volume in recent weeks. The Super Bowl alone generated over $1 billion in a single day on the platform.

Where Kalshi struggles: The same sports dominance that drives volume also creates regulatory vulnerability. State gaming commissions in Nevada, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and others argue that sports event contracts are unlicensed gambling. A Massachusetts judge already issued a preliminary injunction blocking sports contracts in the state. If that precedent spreads, Kalshi's volume could take a serious hit.

Infrastructure is the other concern. Kalshi's systems buckled under Super Bowl volume — deposit delays, app outages, and user frustration during the most critical trading window of the year. When you're processing $1 billion in a day, infrastructure that can't keep up isn't a minor issue.

And then there's contract resolution. The Cardi B halftime debacle — where $57 million was wagered on a question that turned out to have no clear answer — highlighted that Kalshi's contract design hasn't kept pace with its volume growth.

Bottom line: Kalshi is the 800-pound gorilla. It has the regulatory stamp, the retail distribution (via Robinhood), and the sports volume flywheel. But its heavy reliance on sports contracts and ongoing state-level legal battles mean it's simultaneously the most dominant and the most exposed platform in the space.

Polymarket — The Decentralized Pioneer

2025 volume: $33.4 billion (approximately $24.1 billion by some measures) Current market share: ~35-40% Regulation: Now CFTC-approved via QCEX acquisition ($112 million); US access rolling out via waitlist Funding: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) invested up to $2 billion Available in: Global; US access expanding (invite-only waitlist as of February 2026) Payment: USDC (stablecoin) on Polygon blockchain Fee structure: Zero trading fees (for now)

What Polymarket does well: Polymarket is the intelligence platform of prediction markets. While Kalshi wins on sports, Polymarket dominates everything else — politics, geopolitics, economics, crypto, science, and culture. It's where the 2024 election was called correctly. It's where the Venezuela situation was priced before mainstream media caught up. And it's where traders who care about "high-signal" events — the kind that actually move financial markets — go to trade.

Polymarket's crypto-native infrastructure gives it global reach that Kalshi can't match. Its zero-fee model (for now) attracts high-frequency traders. And the ICE investment — from the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange — gave it an institutional seal of approval that transformed its reputation overnight.

The QCEX acquisition was the strategic masterstroke. By buying a CFTC-licensed exchange for $112 million, Polymarket went from "offshore crypto platform" to "regulated US exchange" in one move, stripping Kalshi of its "only legal US option" advantage.

Where Polymarket struggles: US access is still limited. As of February 2026, Polymarket US is invite-only with a waitlist. That means millions of potential US traders can't yet use it — a massive constraint during a period of explosive growth.

The crypto barrier is real. MetaMask wallets, USDC stablecoins, and blockchain transactions are second nature to crypto-native traders but intimidating for mainstream users. Kalshi's "connect your bank account" simplicity still wins for the average person.

There's also the wash trading question. A Columbia University study flagged signs of artificially inflated volume on Polymarket's global platform. Whether this materially affects the numbers is debated, but it introduces trust concerns.

Bottom line: Polymarket is the intellectual heavyweight — the platform serious traders and institutions use for non-sports forecasting. Its ICE backing and CFTC license give it the ammunition to compete with Kalshi directly. But until US access opens fully and the crypto UX barrier drops, it's fighting with one hand tied behind its back in the world's largest prediction market.

The Challengers

The duopoly is real, but it won't last forever. A wave of well-funded challengers is entering the space.

Robinhood

Entry: Acquired MIAXdx (CFTC-licensed exchange) for prediction market capabilities Advantage: 25+ million existing users who already know how to buy and sell contracts Strategy: Pipes Kalshi markets into its app alongside stocks and crypto — prediction markets as just another asset class Watch for: Robinhood's massive retail base could make it the distribution winner even without originating its own markets. Currently suing regulators in Nevada and New Jersey to defend its event contracts.

DraftKings

Entry: Acquired Railbird Technologies (CFTC-licensed exchange) in late 2025 Advantage: 12+ million existing sports bettors, deep brand recognition in gaming Strategy: Prediction markets as a complement to its sportsbook — available in 47 states Watch for: DraftKings knows sports bettors better than anyone. If it can convert even a fraction of its user base to prediction market traders, it becomes a major volume player immediately. Set an all-time single-event trading record during the Super Bowl.

FanDuel (Flutter Entertainment)

Entry: Launched FanDuel Predicts across all 50 states Advantage: Massive brand trust, existing sports betting audience Strategy: Integrating prediction markets directly into the FanDuel sports experience Watch for: FanDuel's parent company Flutter has the deepest pockets in the sports betting world. If prediction markets prove to cannibalize sportsbook revenue, Flutter can pivot the entire business.

Fanatics

Entry: Launched Fanatics Markets in late 2025 Advantage: 150+ million user ecosystem across sports merchandise, collectibles, and betting Strategy: Cross-selling prediction markets to an existing sports-obsessed customer base Watch for: The Fanatics ecosystem is massive but untested in financial products. Early market depth and selection are limited.

Crypto.com

Entry: CFTC-regulated via Derivatives North America (CDNA) exchange Advantage: 150+ million global crypto users, vertically integrated exchange infrastructure Strategy: Powers not just its own prediction markets but also serves as infrastructure for Fanatics Markets, Underdog, and Truth Social Watch for: Today's CFTC amicus brief was filed specifically in support of Crypto.com's fight against Nevada regulators — making it the test case for federal preemption of state gambling laws.

Other Notable Platforms

Interactive Brokers (ForecastEx): Bringing prediction markets to professional traders through an established brokerage platform. Currently holds around 12% odds on Manifold Markets to lead by volume.

predict.fun: The standout among smaller platforms, climbing 24% in a single week during the Super Bowl period to $215.7 million in volume.

Opinion: The third-largest platform by volume, though it pulled back to $1.24 billion in Super Bowl week.

Where Each Platform Wins

The landscape isn't one-size-fits-all. Different platforms dominate different categories:

US sports (NFL, NBA, MLB): Kalshi dominates with the deepest liquidity and most comprehensive market coverage. DraftKings is the fastest-growing challenger.

Global sports (Premier League, cricket, FIFA): Polymarket leads with international coverage that Kalshi doesn't match.

US politics and elections: Polymarket remains the gold standard for political forecasting. Its 2024 election call cemented this reputation. Kalshi is competitive but hasn't matched Polymarket's political depth.

Geopolitics and macro: Polymarket, without question. The Venezuela situation, Fed rate decisions, global conflicts — this is where Polymarket's information-dense trader base produces the sharpest prices.

Crypto and tech: Polymarket leads, given its crypto-native user base. Bitcoin price predictions, AI milestones, SpaceX IPO odds — these markets live on Polymarket.

Entertainment and culture: Split between platforms. Oscars markets are seeing $15 million+ in volume on Polymarket. Kalshi dominates Super Bowl entertainment props ($100 million+ on Bad Bunny's opening song alone).

Economics and finance: Both platforms compete here. Fed rate decisions, employment data, and inflation figures draw institutional-grade trading on both Kalshi and Polymarket.

The Regulatory Earthquake

Today's CFTC filing isn't just a legal brief. It's a structural shift that will reshape which platforms win and which ones get crushed.

Here's the situation: the CFTC, under Chairman Selig, has now explicitly declared that prediction markets are federally regulated derivatives — and that federal jurisdiction preempts state gambling laws. Selig's Wall Street Journal op-ed stated the CFTC "will no longer sit idly by while overzealous state governments undermine the agency's exclusive jurisdiction."

Multiple states — Nevada, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Connecticut, New York, Louisiana — have either sued platforms or issued cease-and-desist orders, arguing that event contracts (especially sports-related ones) are unlicensed gambling.

The implications for traders and platforms:

If federal preemption wins: Prediction markets operate freely in all 50 states under CFTC oversight. Kalshi's sports volume is safe. Polymarket's US expansion accelerates. Every challenger with a CFTC license gets nationwide access. The industry likely doubles again.

If states win: Platforms face a patchwork of state-by-state regulations, similar to sports betting after the 2018 Supreme Court decision. Sports contracts become available only in states that opt in. Non-sports contracts (politics, economics, crypto) likely survive everywhere since they're harder to classify as gambling. The industry fragments.

The most likely outcome: A messy middle. Federal preemption probably holds for most contract types, but sports contracts face ongoing state-level challenges for years. Platforms with diverse market offerings (not just sports) are better positioned than those dependent on a single category.

This is exactly why understanding the full landscape matters. The platforms that survive the regulatory gauntlet will be the ones with diversified market catalogs, strong federal compliance, and the ability to operate even if sports contracts face restrictions in certain states.

What Smart Traders Should Be Watching

If you're actively trading or entering the space, here's what the landscape tells you:

Diversify across platforms. No single platform covers everything. Kalshi for sports, Polymarket for geopolitics and macro, and keep an eye on DraftKings and Robinhood as they ramp up. Cross-platform arbitrage opportunities exist — the same event sometimes trades at different prices across exchanges.

Watch the sports-to-everything pipeline. The millions of users who came in through the Super Bowl will discover politics, economics, and crypto markets. The platforms that retain them beyond sports will win the long game.

Pay attention to regulatory developments. Today's CFTC filing is the biggest signal yet that the federal government is going to bat for this industry. But state battles will create volatility in platform availability and market offerings. Stay informed.

Infrastructure matters. Kalshi's Super Bowl crash wasn't a one-time thing — it's a symptom of the entire industry scaling faster than its backend can handle. When the next market-moving event hits, the platform that stays up wins the traders.

Liquidity is king. The platform with the best price on a given contract isn't necessarily the one with the tightest spreads. Volume, open interest, and market depth all matter. As the landscape fragments across more platforms, the ability to see liquidity across all of them simultaneously becomes increasingly valuable.

That last point is personal. It's exactly what we're building at Asymmetrix — intelligence that sits above the fragmentation, synthesizing real-time data across platforms so traders can see the full picture, not just one exchange's slice of it.

The Bottom Line

The prediction market landscape in 2026 is defined by three forces: explosive growth ($44 billion in 2025, on pace for significantly more in 2026), rapid fragmentation (10+ platforms now competing, up from 2 a year ago), and a regulatory reckoning that's playing out in real time between the federal government and the states.

Kalshi is the volume leader with a sports-powered flywheel and the Robinhood distribution advantage. Polymarket is the intelligence leader with global reach and the institutional backing of ICE. DraftKings, Robinhood, FanDuel, Fanatics, and Crypto.com are all stacking chips to challenge the duopoly.

The federal government just put its weight behind the industry. The state battles will be messy but the direction is clear. And the traders, builders, and platforms that understand the full landscape — not just one piece of it — are the ones who will shape what comes next.

This space is moving at the speed of markets. Keep up or get left behind.

At Asymmetrix, we're building intelligence at the intersection of news, events, and technology — synthesizing real-time data across every platform so event-driven traders see the full picture. Follow us for more industry analysis.

This article is updated regularly as the landscape evolves. Bookmark it for the latest platform data, regulatory developments, and market intelligence.